Question

the discussion includes global warming pollution and the dependency on on-renewable oil

Answer 1

To start, we should all recognize that no one wants to injure the planet, the climate, and the future economies and societies that our children will inherit. Even the radicals don't want to pollute the planet. Can you imagine James Inhofe sitting around the dinner table asking his family to find more ways he can pollute the air and water of this planet? I can't; it just doesn't happen.

Next, let's be honest about what is known and what isn't. Starting with what we know:

1. Humans emit a lot of greenhouse gases each year and the amount of such gases in the atmosphere have risen significantly.

2. Greenhouse gas increase should cause climate change. They do so by theory, in experiment, and by computer simulation. The history of the Earth confirms this behavior.

3. The Earth's climate has been observed to change.

None of these items are confrontational or controversial. There really isn't much doubt about them, not even amongst the most ardent contrarians.

So, where does disagreement occur? Well, in my mind, it often occurs over risk. Part of the story about why this topic is toxic is because people handle risk very differently. Some people do not want to take risk when the consequences are severe. Other people are more comfortable with risk and need to have more convincing evidence before they are motivated for action. They really want to be sure before they act.

How does this play out with the climate? Well, first we have to get into what scientists don't know.

1. We don't know exactly how much climate change will occur. It may range from very little to a lot over the next 100 years or longer. If we are lucky, climate change will be a minor inconvenience. If we are unlucky, it will destabilize societies around the world. It is most likely neither of these extremes will occur, the future will be somewhere in the middle, but frankly we just don't know.

2. We don't know how fast it will happen. Will it take a few decades or a few centuries for some of the big changes to occur? We have a pretty good idea but we can't be certain.

3. We don't know exactly how climate change will manifest itself. How will drought/flood patterns change? How will hurricanes change? How will sea levels rise? How fast will the oceans acidify? We have educated guesses but we can't be certain.

4. It isn't clear how much of what we see is due to us and how much is just natural variability.

5. How will climate change affect economies and societies? What regions and people will suffer more? Who will be impacted less?

So, how do we make decisions with uncertainty? That is a value-judgment. Do we play it safe? Do we roll the dice?